I find myself scooped once again by my associate, DD Degg, who covered this large collection of political cartoons, but I had already planned to feature Clifford Berryman’s piece from October 19, 1948, as part of today’s celebration of prognostications gone awry.
All the pollsters had the election in the bag for the New York governor, and, as Berryman has Dewey say, the results were such a foregone conclusion that it was hardly worth going through the charade of voting.
But this famous photograph captured the results, in a classic example of why we should go ahead and vote despite the voices of experts.
You don’t need to be a history buff to know that. We’ve just done it again over the past few weeks, and, while we wait for a few more cartoons to pour in on the topic of what happened, we’ll take a look at cartoons about what didn’t.
Two points: One is that these misses come from both sides of the aisle, and the other is that being lumped in with Clifford Berryman is far from an insult.
Okay, a third point: I told you so.
But so did Dana Milbank, who offers a detailed explanation that is good reading but boils down to a single point:
We don’t yet know precisely who won the 2022 midterms, but we certainly know who lost. I’m sorry to say that my colleagues in the political press blew it.
I’m glad I add links to my main points, because you can go back and see that there were plenty of people cautioning about faulty polls and angry women and those fired-up Gen Z voters, who made such a difference that there have been calls from the lunatic fringe to repeal the 26th Amendment and raise the voting age back up to 21.
They should probably take a look at the 15th and 19th, too, just to make sure they’re never ambushed again.
Laura Ingraham found a more refined way of spouting that old political phrase, “The people have spoken, damn them!” but she got her message across: Telling people where you stand and making it easier for them to vote screws up the system.
However, despite her odd interpretation and that of the election deniers who began framing their assaults on the system before voting even began, the majority of wrong predictions were errors, perhaps naive, and certainly not helpful, but, for the most part, not deliberate attempts to undermine democracy.
Scott Stantis (Counterpoint) disputed the likelihood of a Blue Wave, which I hadn’t heard anyone predict anyway, but he gets credit for producing one of the first Sad Surfer cartoons, a motif which has since swollen to the level of a plague. His prediction that voters would reject Democrats for championing inflation, failing to stem crime and fighting against unsafe back alley abortions simply didn’t pan out.
Similarly, Morten Morland depicted Biden being crushed by the explosion of angry GOP voters, which would be a safe enough prediction in most years, because, as has been beaten into our ears for the past six weeks or more, it is an historical tradition for the incumbent to lose heavily in the midterms.
Phil Hands also predicted based on history rather than by reading the current tea leaves, and thereby missed the rising activism of Gen Z, who justified their grandparents’ push for that 26th Amendment in ways that their parents never quite did.
I don’t know why grandparents and grandkids seem to form such strong bonds across that much-vaunted “generation gap,” but somehow Eddie Cochran’s lyrics caught fire with this younger group …
Well, I told my congressman
And he said, quote,
I’d like to help you, son,
But you’re too young to vote.
… despite the fact that they never faced the age-based dilemma PJ Sloan explained
You’re old enough to kill
But not for voting
You don’t believe in war
But what’s the gun you’re toting?
For whatever reason, they turned out in massive numbers, god bless’em, and, like the little Dutch boy with his finger in the leaking dike, they may not have been able to reverse things, but they prevented a flood.
I don’t know how accurate David Rowe’s vision was, because I have no idea how many people stayed up to watch the results crawl in.
Given how early I’m up doing this in the morning, all-nighters are rare for me and I gave up and went to bed when I realized the people on TV didn’t know who was winning, either, and were just filling time while they waited to get some substantive numbers.
Around midnight, I got back up and flipped on the television and saw that, while they had numbers, the numbers didn’t add up to a definitive trend one way or the other, so I went back to bed secure in the knowledge that nothing was going to happen worth losing sleep over.
I’m guessing a lot of other people came to the same conclusion.
As for that man trump-trump-trumping on her chamber door, suffice it to say that, while Biden held the line, the Orange God King may turn out to be the biggest loser, unless we hear that Rupert Murdoch fired all those responsible for this morning’s NYPost cover.
That little box at lower right reads
Analyst John Podhoretz has two words why Tuesday was a “red trickle”: Donald Trump. His terrible candidates dragged Republicans down. And now, writes columnist Piers Morgan, it’s time for Trump to move on from politics.
As George Takei would say, “Oh my.”
Gary Varvel (Creators)’s bold prediction hardly proved out, not only because Biden’s administration wasn’t a factor that kept Democratic voters home — even those who reportedly disagree with his policies turned out to support the basic premise — but because, obviously, Republicans are not thanking him, and, more to the point, they’re now turning on each other.
Juxtaposition of Herself
And, indeed, the politburo purge may be under way. Lisa Benson (Counterpoint) followed up her off-the-mark red wave prediction with a follow-up that adds to the emerging vision of whose fault it was.
But we’ll deal with the aftermath tomorrow.
For now, as Lalo Alcaraz says, the media and the polling groups have some cleaning up of their own to do.
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> I don’t know why it seems grandparents and grandkids seem to form such strong bonds across that much-vaunted “generation gap,”
I can’t remember who said it, but it’s because they have a common enemy.
Benson’s depiction of Donald J. Nutcase saying “winning” is the best laugh I’ve had in a while.
There was a nice cartoon about Republican Unity in the Apr/17/1912 Puck. Of course that was well before the election but turned out to be a good predictor of the outcome.
https://books.google.com/books?id=EmcxAQAAMAAJ&pg=PP212
Fred King: That was Sam Levenson’s line.
I believe that line to be true; I know it was very applicable to my first husband’s family.
I think the days of polls and pollsters have gone the way of print newspapers; with so many folks having cell phones, and keeping phone numbers with prefixes that are NOT local (as we both do here – we still use our WI number, but moved to FL seven years ago – talk about jumping from the frying pan [Scott Walker] into the fire [Ron DeathSantis]!), I don’t think polls are relevant any more and I wish they’d go away. Also, giving ‘results’ from the East Coast voters when the West Coast polling places are still open, thus perhaps influencing those who’ve not yet voted but want to be with the ‘winner’.
Some of those Republican-leaning cartoons label abortion as a losing position for Democrats. The election results make it pretty clear that is another error – or at least that the hard-line anti-abortion position prominently staked out by many Republican leaders post-Roe is unpopular. Polls have consistently shown that.
Speaking of polls, they really weren’t far off this cycle if one knew where to look. 538 gave the Republicans only a 59-41 probability edge in the Senate (a tossup), and that’s with their “deluxe” model, which takes account of historic trends like the state of the economy and usual midterm losses for the President’s party. I believe their model that only considers polls weighted by quality and partisan bias history had the Senate much closer.
I’m an election judge in little red Prowers County (SE Colorado) We worked until almost midnight Tuesday, and finished off after 6 more hours on Wednesday. One of our judges has been doing it since 1998, and she said this has NEVER happened before.
I was tickled we had such a big percentage of people voting, over 62%, and I thought we would win the turnout prize in our area, but no, we were FIFTH out of eight! One REALLY tiny county had a 73% voting rate!
Voting in Indiana often feels like Charlie Brown running after that football, but my only hope this year was keeping the local anti-vax, book-banning nutjob off the school board and it got done with a few hundred votes, despite her looking like she had the better funded campaign (by whom is still a mystery). I’m using that as a teachable moment for my own zoomer who’ll be voting age in a little over a year.
Seems to be a New York kinda thing…Trump wins every time.. don’t play 162 just give the Yankees the trophy in April.